Rumfork Sages

Hellllloooo. After an 11-5 start to my pick season last week (which was unfotunately...well, obviously, late) I return with my Week 13 Picks. These are obviously early, due to the Thanksgiving games tomorrow, but all picks for the week will be here.

People have asked me about how I would bet, and in all honesty, I wouldn't bet all 16 games in any given week (or less depending on byes). I would only bet a certain number of games that I was absolutely confident in my picks, and since I'm sick of using hindsight as a way to determine this ("oh I definitely would have bet on this well no I don't have proof why do you ask?"), I'll be including for the rest of the season my Lock Picks of the Week. These are games that I am absolutely positive about the outcome and would bet quite a bit on them myself (and often will). I will group my Lock Picks first, followed by the remaining picks. There is no set number of games I'll Lock, as in any given week there could be 1 or 5, no one really knows. That being said, Week 13!

Lock Picks

Titans at Lions - Find me someone who doesn't have the Titans as a Lock in this game.
LOCK PICK - Titans

Seahawks at Cowboys - The Seahawks are an absolute mess. Mike Holmgren is done after this season and it seems to me that Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside of a semi-successful career. There's just no way Seattle can get this done, especially on the road.

LOCK PICK - Cowboys

Dolphins at Rams - The Dolphins, despite being shredded by Matt Cassel and co. last week, are still in the AFC playoff hunt. The Rams are abismal in every facet of the game; forget the two game abberation earlier this season, it just doesn't matter anymore. Miami is not going to lose two in a row, not when they have a chance at a monster one season turnaround.

LOCK PICK - Dolphins.

And the rest...

Cardinals at Eagles - Is it Donovan McNabb? Or is it Kevin Kolb? Or...McNabb? Or...Kolb? Pulling Donovan in the middle of a 10-7 game for a guy without any experience, then watching him blow the game, then giving it time and eventually going back to the original starter...yeah. For give me if I have little faith in the Eagles. The Cardinals have the potential to put this one away early, but don't be surprised if they do try and blow it (a la...the Cardinals). But they won't, Andy Reid is just too good at losing.

PICK - Cardinals

49ers at Bills - This game is kind of ridiculous. In both cases, you do not know which team is going to show up. Shaun Hill looked pretty good last week in Dallas, but the 49ers cannot get it done in the Red Zone. Buffalo started out strong, and completely fell apart. I think either of these teams has the potential to blow it up, but because of how good Buffalo looked last week against KC...it's them.

PICK - Bills

Ravens at Bengals - I really did have to think about including this in my Locks, but I didn't for a couple of reasons. For one, the Bengals, despite how terrible they have been, still have the ability to get it done. I know I mocked them last week, but at home, with the Ravens in the playoff hunt, don't think that Ocho Cinco would love to play spoiler, and he can. I don't think he will, but this isn't going to be a runaway win for Baltimore.

PICK - Ravens

Saints at Bucs - I'm pretty sure the majority of pundits are going to have Tampa in this one. Both teams have played some good football the past few weeks, but the Saints showed their stuff on monday. The problem - a short week. However, despite being on the road, and despite the short week, I think the Saints are going to win a close one. Drew Brees is on fire right now, and he absolutely cannot be stopped. I think there will be a lot of scoring in this one, but I look for the Saints to win their third straight.

PICK - Saints

Giants at Redskins - I still don't care what people say, the Giants are overrated. Yes, they are a good team, but they are not as good as advertised. I thought the Cardinals could expose them this week, but they came up short. I look for the same upset this week, by the Skins.

PICK - Redskins

Colts at Browns - This is a tough one. With Brady Quinn out of the fold for the season, I think Cleveland can go back to its previous power. The Colts certainly have looked unstoppable recently, however, so the question remains: will the return of DA be enough to stop the Colts? I have to call the upset in this one. It's just that kind of game.

PICK - Browns

Panthers at Packers - This one is tough. Both of these teams looked pretty bad last week, but the Packers looked so much worst. It's winter in Lambeau, however, and I look for Aaron Rodgers to bounce back and pick up a hard fought win.

PICK - Packers

Falcons at Chargers - All the press in the world about how great your players are means precisely dick when you're as overrated as San Diego.

PICK - Falcons

Broncos at Jets - I hate this game. I need the Jets to lose, but I hate to root for the Broncos. Sadly, I don't think it matters; the Broncos have no ability to stop Jet Favre and not enough ability to stop Kris Jenkins.

PICK - Jets

Steelers at Patriots - Matt Cassel is only the 5th QB in NFL history to pass for back to back 400 yard games. Ben Roethlisberger is repeatedly referred to as "Elite" despite being repeatedly sacked. Every year for the past few, the Steelers are supposed to be the ones who finally stop the Patriots. And they don't.

PICK - Patriots

Chiefs at Raiders - It's the battle of two teams who suck but still managed to beat Denver. I am loving Tyler Thigpen, and I think he is the future in KC. I think he can put up great numbers in Oakland, certainly enough to prevent the massive blowout that occured last time that actually made Oakland look good. Two things matter this week though: Tom Cable taking over the playcalling and finding a way to win in Denver, and Herm Edwards absolutely being unable to win any game ever down the stretch no matter the situation.

PICK - Raiders

Bears at Vikings - This is going to be one hell of a game. The Vikings have an alright passing game, a fantastic running game, an amazing run defense and a so-so pass defense. The Bears have a solid ground game, a solid passing game, and a great defense. This game is pretty evenly matched; I give the edge to the Vikings for one reason: his name is Adrian Peterson. Let's take the Vikings seriously, folks.

PICK - Vikings

Jaguars at Texans - It's the "Who's More Disapointing?!" Bowl. Guess what...it's the Jaguars.

PICK - Texans

That's Week 13. I'll update as we go. You're going to be calling me a visionary for that Browns upset pick.